Viewing archive of Monday, 6 August 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W64) produced an M4/1N flare at 05/2224 UTC. Growth in the region has slowed but it maintains moderate sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Regions 9563 (N23W21), 9566 (N17W08), and 9570 (S10E61) also generated C-class subflares. New Region 9571 (N05E78) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class activity is possible in a number of active Regions, most notably 9557, 9563, and 9566.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under the influence of disturbed solar wind conditions that included sustained southward IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Aug 164
  Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        06 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  013/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Aug  020/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

All times in UTC

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