Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Regions 9591
(S18W65) and 9601 (N14E08 produced three M-class events between
them. The largest was an M3/2n at 02/1348 UTC from Region 9591.
Both of these regions have decayed slightly since yesterday, but
Region 9591 continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. New Region 9603 (S08E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 and 9601 capable of producing a
major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
conditions are possible for September 03 and 04.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 183 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 015/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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