Viewing archive of Monday, 3 September 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A very gradual rise in X-rays began at 03/1545Z, peaking at the M1 level at 03/1716Z and ending at 1737Z. A long duration M2 event soon followed, peaking at 03/1841Z. No obvious optical source was apparent for either event. A C9 flare occurred at 03/0158Z associated with a Type II sweep and bright surge near S22 on the east limb. Region 9591 (S18W81) maintains a Delta configuration as it nears the west limb. New spot groups emerging just east of Region 9591 may add to this region's complexity. Region 9601 (N14W06) continues to maintain moderate complexity with near 700 millionths of white light area coverage and was the source of a number of small C-class flares. New Regions 9604 (S21W61), 9605 (S20E53), and 9606 (S17E57) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 maintain good potential for M-class flares and an isolated major flare. New spot development just east of Region 9591 further supports potential for significant activity near the SW limb. Activity on the SE limb suggests a region with some complexity will rotate into view the next day or so.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal hole stream and possibly some weak CME effects are producing the disturbed conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. Conditions will return to quiet to unsettled levels by days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 199
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  190/180/175
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep  158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  002/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%25%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/22M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024103.3 -49.2
Last 30 days115.4 -40.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
11999M7.71
22013M4.82
32023M3.33
42013M2.8
51999M2.61
DstG
11982-101G3
22014-71G1
32001-59
41987-59
51989-58G1
*since 1994

Social networks