Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated M1 observed at 26/1306 UTC. Region
9591 (S19E18) continued to produce C-class flares during the period.
This region maintains its large area (740 millionths) and a
beta-gamma-delta Fki configuration. New Region 9597 (N17E48) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9591 is capable of M-class events with potential
to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to minor storm conditions on 27 and 28 August
as a result of the X5 event from 25 August. Major storm conditions
are possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on 29 August.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 190 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 035/035-030/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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