Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity remained low. Although the x-ray
background was elevated all day, and significant white light growth
occurred in a few regions, the largest flare activity was just a
C8/Sf at 0645 UTC from Region 9632 (S18E45). Numerous mid-sized
C-class events occurred from a number of the 13 spotted regions
visible. Region 9622 (N12W32) grew dramatically in white light, but
is still dwarfed by Regions 9628 (S17E25) and 9632, measuring 630
and 710 millionths respectively. Two new regions came into view,
9633 (N23E75) and 9634 (N12E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9622, 9628, and 9632 are each capable of M-class
x-ray flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A brief interval of active
conditions occurred 0900-1500 UTC as the IMF Bz vector turned
southward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 255 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 260/265/270 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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