Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 9636 (N13W70) and 9645
(S17W41) produced C2/Sf events early in the period. Several Type
III radio sweeps and discrete frequency radio bursts made up the
rest of today's activity. The partial halo CME seen on EIT imagery
yesterday appears to have been caused by a back-side source. Region
9636 and Region 9641 (S13W19) both showed an increase area coverage
of their respective spot coverage today. Three new groups were
numbered today, Region 9651 (S22W12), Region 9652 (N22E14), and
Region 9653 (S23E76). Region 9653 has a penumbral spot that can be
seen rotating onto the east limb and has a latitude of that in which
old Region 9608 had as it departed the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9636 and Region 9645 remain capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
Flux levels remain above event level at time of bulletin issue.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods possible early on the first day of forecast period due to
CME passage.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 187 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 026/053 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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