Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N11W10)
produced an M3/1n event at 31/0809 UTC. This region has an Ekc spot
classification and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9685
(N05E68) and 9686 (N16E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a continued possibility for a major flare
from Region 9682.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was
observed on the ACE spacecraft at 31/1253 UTC, followed by a 6 nt
sudden impulse at 31/1352 UTC observed on the Boulder magnetometer.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on November 1 resulting from a CME observed on October 29.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 221 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 210/200/195 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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