Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687 produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf) came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22) continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated, however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing event during the next three days.

The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to -12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC. At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was weakly northwards.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.

  Observed       01 Nov 236
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  225/225/230
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 204

  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/012-012/010-010/010