Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9704 (S18W74) produced
an impulsive X1 flare at 25/0951 UTC (optically correlated using SXI
imagery). SOHO/LASCO imagery did not reveal a CME signature with
this major flare, negating geoeffective potential. Even with the
loss of the delta magnetic classification, this region remains the
principle source of flare activity and produced numerous C-class
flares during the period. Region 9715 (N06E58) has shown some
growth in complexity over the period and produced several minor
optical flares. New Region 9716 (S04E73) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9704 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare before it transits the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active (24/2100-25/0000 UTC). The greater than
10 MeV proton event and associated polar cap absorption remained in
progress at the end of the period (proton flux peaked to 18900 pfu
at 24/0555 UTC). A moderate (10.2 percent based on the Thule
neutron monitor) Forbush decrease began shortly after the beginning
of forecast period and peaked near 25/0040 UTC, ended near 25/0300
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two, becoming quiet to active on day three with the recurrence of a
geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end late on the 26th, as it continues to slowly
decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 170 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 076/108 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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