Viewing archive of Monday, 26 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9715 (N06E44)
was the lone source for optically correlated flare activity
occurring from a numbered region during the period. Several C-class
flares were noted from this region with the largest being a C4/Sf
flare seen at 26/1354 UTC. Significant growth in magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma) and penumbral areal coverage have made this
region the most notable region currently on the visible disk.
Region 9704 (S20W88) was quiet today as it transits the west limb.
A C9 x-ray flare occurred on the east limb with an associated Type
II radio sweep (251 km/s) at 25/2317 UTC. At S20, the source of
this flare is believed to be old Region 9787 which produced M-class
activity during it's last rotation. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9715 now appears capable of
producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2320 UTC, remained in
progress (flux at 14 pfu) at the time of bulletin issue (peak flux
was 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC). The polar cap absorption event ended
at 26/0730 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the
forecast. Active periods are possible on days two and three due to
a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end early on the 27th, as the proton integral flux
continues to slowly decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M | 40% | 40% | 50% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Proton | 90% | 50% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 175
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 175/180/185
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 010/010-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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