Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9754 (S09E38) was
the most active area producing two M1 flares this past day. This
sunspot group is a growing E-type region developing increased
magnetic complexity. Region 9742 (N12W57) remains the largest
sunspot group on the disk with area in excess of 1000 millionths.
However this region does not appear to have significant magnetic
complexity and has not produced major activity. New Region 9755
(S05E64) rotated onto the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9742, 9748, and
9754.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high-speed coronal
hole stream apparent yesterday has passed and solar wind parameters
have returned to nominal values.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 259 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 260/260/255 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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