Viewing archive of Monday, 21 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted
of several minor C-class flares from three separate regions. Region
9788 (N18E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf
flare at 21/0329 UTC. This region continues to show growth in both
spot coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 9791 (S03W33) also
continues to show rapid growth and produced a minor C-class flare
late in the period. Region 9785 (N10W85) produced a small C-class
flare early in the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. A chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare
remains possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 225 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 230/235/235 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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