Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S10W59)
produced a long duration M1/1f flare at 19/1144 UTC. Two partial
halo CMEs in rapid succession occurred along with this event, with
an estimated plane of sky speed for the combined ejecta in the range
of 700-750 km/s. Region 9866 has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 9874 (N18E21) and Region 9875 (S18E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9866 and Region 9871 have the potential for
M-class events. There is a slight possibility for an isolated
X-class or proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels Minor storm
levels were observed early in the day, due to a three hour period of
sustained southward Bz during 0200-0500 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton event remains in progress, with a maximum flux of 53 pfu
observed at 19/0650 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Active conditions are expected on
day one from effects of the CME on 18 March. Activity is expected
to subside during day two. By day three, effects from the CME
activity discussed in section 1A above are expected to result in
predominantly active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 175 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 020/020-012/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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