Viewing archive of Monday, 15 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The Region complex
9893/9901 (N20W75) continues to flare as it approaches the west
limb. The largest was an M3/Sf at 15/0014 UTC. This region appears
to retain its mixed polarities and sunspot delta configuration.
Region 9906 (S15W14) also produced M-class activity, a long-duration
M1/Sf at 15/0355 UTC. An apparent Earth-directed CME is visible in
LASCO coronagraph images following this flare. Decay in Region 9906
since yesterday is most notable as fragmentation in the trailer
sunspot complex. Region 9907 (S04E21) continues to develop but has
not yet produced significant activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class flares are possible in Regions 9906 and
the 9893/9901 complex, as is an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and
three in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 203 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 200/190/185 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 008/008-018/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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