Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. M-flares continued in
Region complex 9893/9901 (N20W90), including an M1 at 15/2324 UTC
and an M2/Sf at 16/1319 UTC. Region 9906 (S15W28) has regenerated
since yesterday, increasing penumbral area in the trailer sunspot
complex and reforming its delta configurations. Region 9907 (S03E07)
has simplified somewhat.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in either Region 9893/9901 or
Region 9906. A major flare in Region 9906 is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active by the end of 17 April UTC in
response to a CME which occurred early on 15 April. Activity should
return to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 196 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 018/015-018/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Strong far side CME 327Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 9Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1748Filaments and prominences 595Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |