Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9885 (N11E27)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M3/1n at 30/1301 UTC. This
is the largest, most complex area presently on the disk and also
produced several C-class subflares throughout the day. Regions 9884
(S19E02) and 9887 (N01E51) also generated subflare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 is expected to produce additional M-class
activity and may generate an isolated X-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 29/2140 UTC and was
followed by a 31 nT Sudden Impulse at Boulder at 29/2237 UTC. This
activity is presumed to be associated with the trans-equatorial
coronal hole mentioned yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels for the duration of
the 3-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 189 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 018/015-018/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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