Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1/1F at 31/1055 UTC in Region 9885 (N10E14). This
area remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but appears to be
simplifying. Regions 9886 (N11E30) and 9887 (N01E37) also generated
small flares. New Region 9889 (S20E48) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 may produce another M-class flare as it decays
further. A low-level M-flare is also possible in Region 9887.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The field remains
under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the next 24-48
hours. Activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions by
the end of the forecast period as the coronal hole influence
diminishes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 204 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 016/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 018/015-018/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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