Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9893
(N19W27) produced a C9.9/1N flare on 11/0153 UTC. This region has
shown growth in area and spot count in the last 24 hours but
maintains its magnetic beta-gamma configuration. Region 9901
(N21W14) increase in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta
configuration. Region 9904 (S16W36) produced a C9/1F flare on
11/1626 UTC with an associated Type II Radio Burst (608 km/s).
Initial analysis at SOHO/LASCO imagery does not indicate an earth
directed component. Two new regions were numbered today: Region
9906 (S16E40) and Region 9907 (S04E74)
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9893/9901 complex has the potential for a major
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. At 11/1800
UTC a greater than 10 Mev proton enhancement began with a current
level of 1.0 pfu at geosynchronous orbit.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. On Day two of the forecast
period a weak CME shock is expected to arrive. On day three another
possible CME shock is due to arrive and should result in unsettled
to active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 197 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 195/190/195 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 010/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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