Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S16W19) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf flare occurred at 08/1324 UTC. This region has shown a slight increase in penumbral coverage. It has also acquired a delta magnetic class spot in the trailing portion of the spot cluster. A C1/Sf occurred in Region 9935 (S17W41) at 07/2245 UTC. Optically uncorrelated, minor C-class flares comprised the rest of the days flare activity. New Region 9946 (S08E65) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9934 has the potential of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A chance for isolated active conditions exists for the first day of the forecast, due to a CME passage from the M1 event at 07/0346 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 187
  Predicted   09 May-11 May  190/195/195
  90 Day Mean        08 May 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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