Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest
event of the period was a C2/Sf from Region 9978 (S20E07) at 04/1614
UTC. SOHO-EIT imagery revealed an eruptive prominence off the
southwest limb during 03/2200 - 04/0100 UTC, although no significant
x-ray enhancement was observed in association with this event. New
Region 9985 (N17E29) emerged on the visible disk and was numbered
today, along with new Region 9986 (N03E72) which rotated into view
from the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mainly low, with a chance for isolated M-class events, and an
associated slight increase in proton flare probabilities as the
larger active regions on the visible disk rotate through
geoeffective heliographic longitudes during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods
corresponded primarily with sustained periods of southward IMF
orientation.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mainly unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period, trending toward mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
thereafter.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 170 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 016/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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