Viewing archive of Friday, 3 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was low. The most interesting flare of
the past day was a long-duration C6/Sf at 02/2134 UTC in Region 9926
(N15W56). This event was associated with a filament eruption, Type
II sweep, and a CME visible in LASCO images that was apparently
directed towards the northwest. CME material was also seen directed
towards the southeast but preliminary analysis suggests that this
may be related to a separate event, possibly from beyond the east
limb. Region 9934 (S17E48) remains the largest and most complex
sunspot group on the disk and is currently a moderately-large E-type
group with a delta configuration in the leader spot complex. This
region has produced flares during the past day but none of them have
had significant x-ray output. New Regions 9937 (S09E68) and 9938
(S04E72) are rotating onto the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are expected to continue from a number
of sunspot groups. Region 9934 remains the most likely source of
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced activity levels are
possible on 05-06 May but a significant disturbance from the LDE/CME
discussed in Part IA is not expected.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 179 Predicted 04 May-06 May 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 03 May 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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