Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9973
(S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred
at 30/1725 UTC. This region also produced several minor subflares,
some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity.
Also, it may have been responsible for several optically
uncorrelated C-class flares. It underwent a very slight decay, but
retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots.
Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532
UTC. The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not
appear as though it will be geoeffective. Region 9963 (N16W56)
produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period. This region
underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma
magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots. New Region
9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a
major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Advanced
Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock
passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled
conditions following. This was believed to be from the disappearing
filament on 27 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 180
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 180/175/170
90 Day Mean 30 May 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 008/010-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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