Viewing archive of Friday, 24 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a
few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this
region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but
remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no
significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic
configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09)
appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic
configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968
(S13E26) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957,
9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at
24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are
possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 189 Predicted 25 May-27 May 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 24 May 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 052/054 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 006/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 015/015-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
sun goes blank 42AR13889 135AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 43Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1204AR 3878 176
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 175.7 +9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 166.1 +21.7 |