Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 May 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Occasional subflares occurred, some of which were associated with C-class X-ray events. Region 9960 (N14W20) produced a single C-class subflare. It underwent slight decay, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S21W04) produced a long-duration C-class subflare at 25/1721 UTC associated with minor radio emission and a narrow-width CME from the south pole. The CME did not appear to be Earth-directed. It showed gradual decay with a persistent, but weakened delta within its intermediate spots. Region 9957 (N10W45) displayed little change during the period. Magnetic delta configurations were present in the northern and southern portions of this region, though they appeared to have dissipated and reformed during the past day or two. New Region 9969 (N09E67) produced occasional subflares. This region may have a moderate degree of complexity, though it is too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9957, 9961, and 9963 appear capable of isolated M-class flare production. There is a slight chance for an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, brief active intervals are possible on 26 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 183
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        25 May 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  012/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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