Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9957 (N12W86)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 28/1635 UTC. This region remains active
as it transits the west limb. Three new regions were numbered
today: Region 9971 (N21E00), Region 9972 (S26E56) and Region 9973
(S16E73). Region 9973 produced a number of minor C-class flares and
currently is the largest spot on the disk with an area of 420
millionths. An impressive halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 28/1626 UTC. However this CME appears to have a backside
source.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9961 and 9963 have the potential for isolated
M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar
wind data indicated a continued gradual decay in velocity to
approximately 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 186 Predicted 29 May-31 May 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 28 May 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 022/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 008/008-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 12% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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