Viewing archive of Monday, 24 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-flare was a C1 at 1606 UTC. The optical source was
not obvious, but there were some slightly enhanced loops visible in
EIT 195 from Region 5 (N14W29). New Region 15 (S27E39) emerged and
was assigned today. A 13 degree filament near N40W06 disappeared
sometime between 0112 UTC and 1345 UTC. A CME erupted from the west
limb at 24/0054 UTC but did not have any earthward component. Region
8 (S10W01) continues to be the largest region on the disk and
appeared to be growing and developing some magnetic complexity
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a very slight chance for moderate
activity from Region 8.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 150
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned
on June 14. Space Weather operations is going
through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,
9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text
discussions of the active regions will ignore the
leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region
number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However,
the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as
well as the USAF and ISES data exchange codes will
preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using
four digits is for operational purposes only. For
historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999
will be understood to be in a series of region numbers
10000 and higher.
All times in UTC
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