Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred, one of which was associated with an
optical subflare from Region 8 (S11W15). Region 8 showed no
significant changes during the period with minor mixed polarities
present within the spots just south of the dominant, asymmetric
leader spot. Region 5 (N11W44) showed gradual loss of spots and
area. Decay was also noted in Region 11 (S12E23). No significant
changes were noted in the remaining regions including newly numbered
Region 16 (S15E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 145 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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