Viewing archive of Monday, 22 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Only infrequent small subflares
occurred. New Region 39 (S12E68), the likely site of the X3 event
late on 20 July, rotated fully into view as a moderate-sized group
with penumbra on both the leader and trailer spots. Limb proximity
hinders magnetic analysis. Other new regions emerging on the disk
today are; 40 (S22E01), 41 (N16E22), and 42 (S18E38). Region 30
(N20W86) is beginning its west limb passage, and Region 36 (S07W15)
remains the most prominent region visible.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30, 36, and 39 are all possible sites for an
isolated event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. Nearly steady southward Bz (5 nT) coupled with enhanced
radial speed (500+ km/s), brought intervals of disturbed conditions.
A small greater than 10 MeV proton event, likely related to the X3
on 20 July, began at 22/0655 UTC. The tentative maximum is 26 pfu at
22/1635 UTC. Fluxes remain in excess of 20 pfu now. The energetic
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 190 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 190/190/195 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 017/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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