Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. While being
void of spots for the past several days, Region 9997 (S17W72)
managed to produced an M1/2f flare at 23/0255 UTC. A few minor
discrete radio bursts accompanied the flare. Region 5 (N13W13)
produced a C1/1n flare at 23/0824 UTC and a B7/Sf flare at 23/1822
UTC. No appreciable changes seen in this region today. Region 8
(S09E13) remains the largest region on the disk but has continued to
show quiescent characteristics. New Regions 12 (N19E20), 13
(N04E07), and 14 (S18E50) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to predominantly
unsettled conditions. The Bz component of the IMF remained
southward throughout most of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 143 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 007/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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