Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. While being void of spots for the past several days, Region 9997 (S17W72) managed to produced an M1/2f flare at 23/0255 UTC. A few minor discrete radio bursts accompanied the flare. Region 5 (N13W13) produced a C1/1n flare at 23/0824 UTC and a B7/Sf flare at 23/1822 UTC. No appreciable changes seen in this region today. Region 8 (S09E13) remains the largest region on the disk but has continued to show quiescent characteristics. New Regions 12 (N19E20), 13 (N04E07), and 14 (S18E50) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to predominantly unsettled conditions. The Bz component of the IMF remained southward throughout most of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 143
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  007/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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