Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Yesterday's C1 flare at 21/2020 UTC was associated with activity
behind the Southwest limb and with a limb CME. The CME does not
appear to have any earthward component. The only C-class event
during the past 24 hours was a C2/Sf at 0236 UTC from Region 5
(N13E00). This group showed some moderate growth during the past 24
hours. Region 8 (S09E26) remains the largest on the disk but was
quiet and stable. New regions 10 (S12E00) and 11 (S12E62) were
assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 142 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 010/012-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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