Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A lone C1 x-ray flare was the
highlight of the flare activity during the period. It went
optically uncorrelated and occurred at 09/1009 UTC. Region 9987
(S15W16) showed a slight increase in sunspot numbers. The remainder
of the numbered regions showed very little (if any) modification
throughout the period. New Regions 9993 (N06W20) and 9994 (N10E59)
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 remains the most likely source for flare
production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 157 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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