Viewing archive of Monday, 10 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Two optically
uncorrelated C1 x-ray flares comprised the flare activity for the
period. Region 9987 (S15W29) grew in magnetic complexity and
penumbral coverage today. Even so, several point brightenings and
intermittent dark surging were all that kept this region from being
quiescent during the past 24 hours. Region 9985 (N18W51) showed a
continued decay in spot count and magnetic complexity. Most other
active regions on the visible disk remain little changed. New
Region 9995 (N10W01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. A
coronal hole may have been responsible for the active conditions
that began near mid-period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 152 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 150/145/150 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 005/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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