Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9991 (S20W09)
produced a C1.5/Sf flare at 12/2119 UTC with associated discrete
frequency radio bursts. Region 9987 (S15W71) continues its gradual
decay and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. The only
other significant disk activity was a five degree disappearing
filament at S14E18.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 and Region 9991 have a slight chance of
producing low level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day two of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 133
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/008-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PLAIN:
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.
All times in UTC
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