Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9991 (S20W09) produced a C1.5/Sf flare at 12/2119 UTC with associated discrete frequency radio bursts. Region 9987 (S15W71) continues its gradual decay and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration. The only other significant disk activity was a five degree disappearing filament at S14E18.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 and Region 9991 have a slight chance of producing low level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on day two of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 133
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/008-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN: This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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