Viewing archive of Friday, 14 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Three new regions
were numbered today: Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50),
and Region 1 (N20E70). Please refer to the attached plain message
for a region numbering discussion. Region 9987 (S16W86) produced a
C1 flare at 14/1020 UTC. Region 9991(S21W21) has remained
relatively stable. New Region 1 has shown some surging but due its
limb proximity prevents a complete analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9987 and 9991 have the potential of C- and low level M-class
events. Old Region 9963 (N17, L= 318) is due to return on day two
of the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M | 20% | 25% | 30% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 131
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PlAIN:
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of region numbers 10000 and higher.
All times in UTC
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