Viewing archive of Friday, 14 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50), and Region 1 (N20E70). Please refer to the attached plain message for a region numbering discussion. Region 9987 (S16W86) produced a C1 flare at 14/1020 UTC. Region 9991(S21W21) has remained relatively stable. New Region 1 has shown some surging but due its limb proximity prevents a complete analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 9987 and 9991 have the potential of C- and low level M-class events. Old Region 9963 (N17, L= 318) is due to return on day two of the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M20%25%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 131
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PlAIN: This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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