Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple low level C- and B-class flares occurred, none of which were optically correlated. Region 8 (S10W69) continues to show very gradual decay in penumbral coverage and has been stable throughout the period. Region 11 (S11W32) changed little from yesterday. Regions 18 (N15W73) and 19 (S17E72) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Day one may see mostly unsettled conditions due to the effects of the partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 27 June.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 143
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  002/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  003/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  010/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and ISES data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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