Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity was low. The highlight of the period was
a very long duration, C2 X-ray event that began around 0915Z, peaked
at 1257Z, and ended at 1625Z. This event was associated with an
impressive coronal mass ejection off the SE limb, near Region 19
(S18E61). This event followed another CME associated with a filament
eruption from near S40W10. Neither CME appears earthbound. Region
19 is a moderately complex spot group with a white light area of
over 400 millionths. Region 17 (S19W23) has also increased in size
and appears to have developed some magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 17 and 19.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetical field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high
latitude active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 147 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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