Viewing archive of Friday, 23 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been high. There have been numerous
low level M-class events during the period from Regions 69 (S08W85),
83 (S19W15), 85 (S09E16) and 87 (S07E60). The most impressive was
an M1/2n at 23/0549 UTC from Region 85 with an associated Type II
radio sweep. A Type IV radio sweep was observed among several
reported events at 23/1415 UTC. New Region 88 (S22W28) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 69, 83, 85, and 87 all have potential to
produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0440 UTC ended at 23/0040 UTC.
The event reached a maximum of 36 pfu at 22/0940 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 24-25 August as a possible
result of the M5 event observed at 22/0157 UTC. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 26 August.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 225 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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