Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity fell to low levels. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf flare at 12/0018 UTC from Region 107 (N11E16). Region 105 (S08E16) produced several lesser C-class flares, including an apparent one in progress at the end of the period. This region remains the largest on the visible disk. It's easternmost spots still retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, while the western spot group appears to have lost some complexity. Region 107 continues in a pattern of slow growth and frequent flare production. Three new regions were numbered today, all relatively small and simply structured at present.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. M-class activity appears possible from Regions 105 and 107.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly unsettled to active. One isolated quiet period was observed at mid-latitudes. Coronal hole high speed stream effects continued to be the main source of activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active during the first day of the forecast period, with a gradual reduction towards quiet to unsettled conditions thereafter. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 212
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep  215/220/225
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  016/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  012/012-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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