Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity fell to low levels. The largest event
of the period was a C4/Sf flare at 12/0018 UTC from Region 107
(N11E16). Region 105 (S08E16) produced several lesser C-class
flares, including an apparent one in progress at the end of the
period. This region remains the largest on the visible disk. It's
easternmost spots still retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration, while the western spot group appears to have lost
some complexity. Region 107 continues in a pattern of slow growth
and frequent flare production. Three new regions were numbered
today, all relatively small and simply structured at present.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. M-class activity appears
possible from Regions 105 and 107.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly unsettled to active. One isolated
quiet period was observed at mid-latitudes. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects continued to be the main source of activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during the first day of the forecast
period, with a gradual reduction towards quiet to unsettled
conditions thereafter. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 212 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 215/220/225 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 012/012-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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