Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W19) continues
to be relatively stable in sunspot structure and magnetic
complexity. It has not produced significant flare activity for three
days. Several new sunspot regions were numbered: 146 (S10E25), 147
(S03E39), 148 (S21E70), 149 (N16E72), 150 (S09W05), and 151
(S14E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 remains the most likely candidate for
producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
most active periods were from 10/0600-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first day of the forecast
period, becoming quiet to unsettled on day two and three. Isolated
substorms remain a possibility.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 167 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 019/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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