Solar activity was moderate. The largest event was a long duration M1.0 x-ray flare, observed early in the period at 14/0017 UTC, accompanied by an extended parallel ribbon enhancement visible in H-alpha imagery in the central and southeast portion of Region 191 (S18W01). A partial halo CME was evident in LASCO imagery following the flare, but did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 191 appears to have developed a weak delta configuration among its intermediate spots in the last 24 hours. Region 192 (N13W34) exhibited moderate growth today and produced a C-class flare late in the period. Region 195 (S16E65) produced several C-class events, the largest being a C8/1n at 14/1345 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 196 (S19W46) and 197 (N25E73).

Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for a major flare during the next three days. Regions 191 and 192 are potential sources of significant flare activity. In addition, Region 197 appears bright in EIT imagery and is expected to rotate into full view as a large region with good flare potential.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to become more active over the course of the forecast period with isolated minor storm periods possible, due to the anticipated influence of a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective heliographic longitudes.

  Observed       14 Nov 184
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 177

  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  016/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  015/020-020/030-018/025