Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
occurred, mostly in Region 220 (S12E21). This region has decayed
somewhat since yesterday. Other disk regions are small and
magnetically simple. New Region 222 (S06W03) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
A low-level M-class flare is possible in Region 220.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 152 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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