Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 191 (S18W28) produced a
C8/Sf flare at 16/1359 UTC. Region 191 remains the most complex
region on the disk with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration
and a slight increase in penumbral coverage. Region 192 (N12W61)
has also shown some increase in penumbral coverage but only produced
a minor C5 flare and a number of sub flares. Region 195 (S16E41)
simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration but some polarity
mixing is evident in the trailing spots. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
indicated a faint full halo CME, first appearing in the C2 field of
view at 16/0712 UTC. The source of this CME may be a C1.9 flare
from Region 191 at 16/0636 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 191, Region 192 and Region 195 have the
potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. Coronal hole
effects are expected during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 199 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 200/195/185 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 015/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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