Viewing archive of Friday, 13 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares were observed from a number of regions. Flares occurred in Regions 220 (S12W06), 223 (N24E60), and 224 (S17E61). Flares were also observed in new Regions 225 (N17E66) and 226 (S28E51). Region 220 continues to simplify. The other regions of note appear to be either relatively stable or growing. New Region 227 (N05E34) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A small M-class flare is possible in most of the regions mentioned in Part IA (220,223,224,225,or 226).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 167
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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