Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated
long duration C2 event was observed at 16/1218 UTC. Available image
data does not reflect an exact location for the event at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 145 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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