Viewing archive of Friday, 17 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A small, four degree
filament near S03W04 disappeared sometime between 16/2338 UTC and
17/1452 UTC. Region 259 (N09E26) showed moderate growth but could
only muster a B-class subflare. The remainder of the solar disk was
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Real-time
solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about
1200 UTC on 17 January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 142 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 135/135/125 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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