Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray event, associated
with a filament disappearance near S19W19, occurred at 27/2219 UTC.
This was the only C-class event on an otherwise quiet day. Little of
significance developed in any of the nine spotted regions. New
region 274 (S06E71) rotated into view as a mature "H-type" spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Episodes of substorming
occurred in local nighttime sectors.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 126 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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