Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Just isolated small C-class activity occurred, as the disk regions were either stable or decaying. One new region emerged, 275 (S11W08).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. One period of active conditions was observed in the past 24 hours. The GOES greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 124
  Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  010/012-010/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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