Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 July 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 422 (N14W67) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2.5/1b flare that occurred at 30/0410Z. A Tenflare and several discrete radio bursts were associated with the event. There were no observed Type II radio sweeps and LASCO imagery doesn't depict a resulting CME. There appears to have been some decay in complexity to this region overnight and the gamma magnetic structure is no longer evident, although the majority of the flare activity came from this region during the period. Region 421 (S08E41) produced a single event today, a B9.1 x-ray flare that occurred at 30/1014Z. There was some penumbral loss in spot group and little flare production today, but the weak gamma magnetic structure remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 421 and 422 both have a chance of producing further isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels throughout the forecast period. Nighttime sectors may experience isolated minor storm conditions through the first two days of the interval. The high speed stream should be in the waning phase by the end of day three.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jul 099
  Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  024/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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