Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class events that were attributed
to Region 422 (N14W80). Region 423 (S19W03) was newly numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to minor storm
levels. The recurrent high speed coronal hole stream continues to
be geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the first two days
of the forecast period. Minor storm conditions are possible during
nighttime for the first day of the interval. Day three should see a
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 102 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 024/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 024/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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