Viewing archive of Friday, 1 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. A new Region 424 (S18E77)
has been single-handedly responsible for a long series of C-class
x-ray flares since it first appeared as a prominence on the
East-limb on July 31st at approximately 2200 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There's a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 424
(S18E77), but overall the disk will be relatively inactive.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A
large polar-connected coronal hole which has maintained a high-speed
solar wind stream, combined with a series of periods where the
interplanetary magnetic field has been oriented Southward,
maintaining elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours. The coronal hole which has generated the current activity
will pass beyond geoeffective range by the end of tomorrow, and the
geomagnetic field should settle to quiet to unsettled levels for
days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 107 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 022/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 025/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 020/025-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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